After completion of the group stage of the european cups, it is time to recalculate the expected number of points for each of the clubs who have qualified for the knock-out stage of the tournaments. When doing this, it becomes obvious that the standard listing of already awarded points in the ‘UEFA Country Coefficients 2023/2024’ does not give a correct impression of who will capture the two EPS at the end of the campaign.
The following must be taken into account:
The maximum number of points per club in each of the tournaments before start of the group stage is highest in Champions League (38), thereafter EL (34) and ECL (30). The clubs who have now survived the Group stage (GS) are promoted to the knock-out stage (KO) through five different entrances:
- CL Ro16, 16 clubs can potentially earn 17 points
- EL-PO (Play-Off), 16 clubs can potentially earn 22 points
- EL Ro16, 8 clubs can potentially earn 17 points
- ECL-PO (Play-Off), 16 clubs can potentially earn 20 points
- ECL Ro16, 8 clubs can potentially earn 16 points
Countries entering into the KO stage in a tournament with multiple teams have a reduced maximum potential for future earning of points. This especially applies for France with four teams in the EL.
Observations and predictions
The above diagram summarizes the calculations and the originally seven realistic candidates for the two EPS. They are ranked by the updates value for ‘Expected UEFA Country Coefficients’ at the end of the season.
- Italy and Germany have the highest number of already booked points.
- Italy and France have the highest maximum potential have because all their teams survived the GS.
- Germany and Italy have the highest expected Country Coefficients at the end of the season, but only with a small gap down to England.
Of the four still realistic candidates, Spain is the only on where the updated calculation gives a lower value than the prediction before the GS.
England has underperformed in the CH, but compensated in EL and ECL with four out of four possible GS wins.
Ironically, Manchester United and Newcastle United, two wo clubs from England who ended last in their groups in CL, are the two clubs currently most likely to end the PL season on the fifth place …
