Model
Our model simulates the results of the remaining matches of the league stage, performs the draw of the playoff matches and simulates the outcome of the knockout stage. We run the simulations 10,000 times and calculate the average values and the 90 percent confidence interval. These two values combined give us the information we need to analyse: The associations with the highest average value are in the front seat, but the more the 90 percent confidence intervals overlap, the more fragile is the lead.
As the campaign progresses, the 90 percent confidence intervals will be gradually smaller and the leads will be more robust.
At some time, the confidence interval of the two frontrunners will no longer be overlapping with that of the following countries. At that time, the EPS for the next campaign can safely be awarded.
Status as per September 26th
Even though most of the teams of the biggest associations are participating in CL, the results in EL will also impact the EPS. Still the changes after MD 1 in EL were rather small:
- England 50 %
- Portugal 38 %
- Spain 37 %
- Germany 30 %
- Italy 29 %
- Belgium 7 %
- France 6 %
- Czech Republic 3 %
Status as per September 19th
England and Portugal were the winners of MD1 in CL, whereas Italy and Spain were the losers. After this update:
- England 48 %
- Spain 38 %
- Portugal 38 %
- Germany 32 %
- Italy 27 %
- Belgium 7 %
- France 6 %
- Czech Republic 3 %
Status after the draw
After the draw of the matches for the league stage in each of the Europa cups, 10 associations have minimum 1 percent probability of capturing one of the two EPS:
- England 45 %
- Spain 43 %
- Portugal 32 %
- Italy 32 %
- Germany 29 %
- Belgium 10 %
- France 5 %
- Czech Republic 2 %
- Netherlands 1 %
- Turkey 1 %
