England is crushingly superior in Europe
English clubs have so far played 21 matches in European cups this campaign and won 16 of them. Probability of one EPS going to England next season is 84%.
The concept of EPS
The concept of awarding two EPS is defined in such way that the two mightiest associations will alternate on the lucrative spot. It will be difficult to defend. We will use our simulation model to predict who will be victorious during the ongoing campaign. Portugal is a dark horse.
The simulation model
Our model simulates the results of the remaining matches of the league stage, performs the draw of the playoff matches and simulates the outcome of the knockout stage. We run the simulations 10,000 times and calculate the average values and the 90 percent confidence interval. These two values combined give us the information we need to analyse: The associations with the highest average value are in the front seat, but the more the 90 percent confidence intervals overlap, the more fragile is the lead.
As the campaign progresses, the 90 percent confidence intervals will be gradually more narrow and the leads will be more robust. At some time, the confidence interval of the two frontrunners will no longer be overlapping with that of the following countries. At that time, the EPS for the next campaign can safely be awarded.
Prediction as of October 24th
Our simulation model predicts that England will end the season with a UEFA coefficient of 24.4 (90% confidence interval is 20.1 to 28.6).
As long as their confidence interval is overlapping with more than one other country nothing is granted, but the likelihood has now climbed to 84%. Next on the list are:
| Country | Estimate | 90% conf. interval | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 24.4 | 20.1 – 28.6 | 84% |
| Spain | 20.6 | 16.2 – 25.2 | 34% |
| Portugal | 20.4 | 15.5 – 25.8 | 33% |
| Germany | 19,7 | 15.8 – 23.7 | 21% |
| Italy | 19.6 | 15.8 – 23.8 | 20% |