The ten biggest leagues have in total 59 clubs in the league phase of the three Europa cups (28 in CL, 22 in EL and 9 in CO).
After the draw of the pairings, it is possible to make a first prediction of who will win the two extra spots CL 2025/26. The simulation model reflects the new format and the strength of the teams is based on the last updated OPTA Power ranking.
The first calculation before the first round of matches is presented in the figure to the right. England is forecasted to have 20.3 point at the end of the campaign. This is almost 3 points more than in previous season where the English clubs all underperformed.
The ‘90% confidence interval’ for England is from 15.3 to 25.3. So, according to the simulation model it is 90% sure that the UEFA Coefficient at the end of the campaign will be between these to values. We will perform a now calculation after each round and the confidence interval will natural be more and more narrow around the forecast.
The system for calculating the UEFA Coefficient is punishing Italy and Germany for their EPS this season. This system makes it likely that the EPS will alternate between the top nations.
Currently the probability for each country is as follows:
- Spain 43 %
- England 42 %
- Italy 35 %
- Portugal 31 %
- Germany 30 %
- Belgium 12 %
- France 5 %
- Czech Republic 3 %
- Netherlands 1 %
